Bitcoin cycle top signals dashboard

No single indicator has a clean record of calling Bitcoin tops, but several of them firing at the same time has historically been rare outside late-cycle conditions. That is the idea behind this scoreboard: instead of staring at one chart, check how many independent lenses (trend momentum, on-chain valuation, long-horizon price extension, and sentiment) agree that the market is running hot.

With zero or one signal triggered, the market is not in a configuration that resembled previous cycle tops. Two or more triggering together is historically unusual and worth attention, especially when the sentiment reading confirms rather than leads. Treat the count as context for position sizing and risk decisions, not as a sell signal on its own.

Cycle indicators are easy to bend in hindsight, so every status on this page is computed from a fixed, documented rule - the same rule in every market regime. The thresholds come from how each metric behaved at previous cycle extremes, and they are conservative by design: this scoreboard should stay quiet through ordinary rallies and only light up in conditions that historically preceded major tops.

Two honest caveats. First, each indicator has effectively three or four historical cycle tops behind it, a small sample. Second, Bitcoin's market structure keeps changing (spot ETFs, institutional flows, diminishing returns across cycles), which can mute signals that worked in earlier eras. The 2021 cycle already showed it: the 2-Year MA Multiplier never reached 5×, and the MVRV Z-Score read only about 5 and 3.5 at the April and November highs, below the 7 it had touched briefly in February. Use the scoreboard to frame risk, and combine it with the underlying charts in the Data Library.