Visualize Bitcoin against its 2-year moving average and the 5x extension that traders often use to frame late-cycle excess.
2Y MA = 730-day simple moving average, upper band = 2Y MA x 5
Prices are daily BTC closes from Blockchain.com: each of its readings is stamped 00:00 UTC, the close of the previous UTC day, and is published under the day it closes. The average is the simple mean of the last 730 daily closes, so the lines start two years after the first price, and the upper line is five times that average. In the 2021 cycle the price reached at most about 4.9 times the average, so the 5x line did not mark those highs. This describes earlier cycles and is not a forecast.