Track cycle extremes by comparing Bitcoin's market cap to realized value, normalized against the historical dispersion of market cap.
(Market Cap - Realized Cap) / StdDev(Market Cap)
Market cap and the MVRV ratio are Blockchain.com chart data, taken at the last reading of each closed UTC day; realized cap is market cap divided by the MVRV ratio. The standard deviation covers the whole market-cap history up to each day (an expanding window that starts once 30 days exist), so early cycles read higher and later peaks compress as the history grows: the score passed 7 at the 2011, 2013 and 2017 tops but only briefly in February 2021, and it read about 5 at the April 2021 high and about 3.5 at the November 2021 high. The BTC price line is the daily close. This describes earlier cycles and is not a forecast.